Application of system theory in the calculation of groundwater resources availability in Balasu water source

In order to evaluate the available exploitation quantity of groundwater resource and provide basis for rational development and utilization of groundwater in Balasu water source, system theory was used to establish runoff forecasting model of Hailiutu River and the calculation error under 97% factor of assurance was determined with frequency calculation. The model was modified with runoff analog method and applied to the rivers of Balasu water source site. After the model was verified, its results were used to determine the available exploitation quantity of groundwater in the Balasu water source site. The results show that the available exploitation quantity of Quaternary groundwater resources in Balasu water source is 67019.40 m³/d. The error of the forecasting model based on system theory is reasonable and acceptable, it can be used for runoff forecasting and then for the groundwater resources evaluation.