Title :
Research on the application of Medical-meteorological forecast model of infectious diarrhea disease in Beijing
Author :
Na, Zhao ; Xiaohui, Ma ; Lu, Gan ; Yiyun, Wei ; SunPeiyuan ; Deshan, Zhang
Author_Institution :
Beijing Meteorol. Sci. & Technol. Service Center, Beijing, China
Abstract :
Based on the existing disease cases and the same period of the weather and climate data, the correlation between infectious diarrhea disease and meteorological factors are researched in this paper. Through multiple regression probability grade method, Medical-meteorological forecast grade (divided into 5 grades) and epidemic risk level evaluation model are established. The results showed that single correlation coefficient between disease and vapor pressure can reach 0.8340. Among all the forecast factors, variance contribution of vapor pressure account for 70.5%. Other important factors include average wind speed and temperature diurnal range. If we assume that the difference between forecast and actual grade smaller than ±1 is correct, the model has an average accuracy rate of 98.5%. And the completely consistent can be account for 62.9~66.4%(six forecast aging). This model not only forecast the incidence of infectious diarrhea disease during Beijing Olympic Games, but also provided scientific basis for disease prevention and control center to guide people prevent infectious diarrhea.
Keywords :
correlation methods; data analysis; diseases; forecasting theory; probability; regression analysis; risk analysis; Beijing Olympic game; climate data; disease prevention; epidemic risk level evaluation model; infectious diarrhea disease; medical meteorological forecast model; multiple regression probability grade method; vapor pressure; Aging; Meteorological factors; Weather forecasting; epidemic risk level evaluation; infectious diarrhea disease; medical-meteorological forecast;
Conference_Titel :
Bio-Inspired Computing: Theories and Applications (BIC-TA), 2010 IEEE Fifth International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Changsha
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-6437-1
DOI :
10.1109/BICTA.2010.5645351