Title :
Research on combination forecast of port container throughput based on Elman neural network
Author :
Zhang, Peilin ; Cui, Yang
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Transp., Wuhan Univ. of Technol., Wuhan, China
Abstract :
As a nonlinear variation, the port container throughput is easy to get affected by market. There are many prediction methods such as regression analysis, exponential smoothing. However, each of these prediction methods has their own characters which all lead to low precision of container throughput forecasting. Constructed on the foundation of BP network, the combination forecast model performs well in time series forecasting and solves the problem excellently. Consequently, based on Elman neural network, this article builds a combination forecast model to improve the precision level of forecast. At last, with the empirical analysis of container throughput in Shanghai port, the reliability and accuracy of the combination model are proved.
Keywords :
backpropagation; forecasting theory; recurrent neural nets; regression analysis; sea ports; time series; BP network; Elman neural network; Shanghai port container throughput forecast; exponential smoothing; nonlinear variation; prediction methods; regression analysis; time series forecasting; Artificial neural networks; Computer languages; Containers; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Predictive models; combination forecast model; cubic exponential smoothing method; elman neural network; gray model;
Conference_Titel :
Communication Software and Networks (ICCSN), 2011 IEEE 3rd International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Xi´an
Print_ISBN :
978-1-61284-485-5
DOI :
10.1109/ICCSN.2011.6014634