DocumentCode :
3249090
Title :
Uncertainty analysis for wind energy production with dynamic power curves
Author :
Jin, Tongdan ; Tian, Zhigang
Author_Institution :
Ingram Sch. of Eng., Texas State Univ. - San Marcos, San Marcos, TX, USA
fYear :
2010
fDate :
14-17 June 2010
Firstpage :
745
Lastpage :
750
Abstract :
The production of wind energy often involves uncertainties due to the stochastic nature of wind speeds and the variation of the power curve. The latter occurs when a fleet of wind turbine generators (WTG) of the same type are deployed in the wind farm, yet each generator may produce different amounts of powers given the same wind speed. This paper aims to characterize the dynamics of the wind energy production and estimate the power uncertainty when a WTG operates between the cut-in wind speed and the rated wind speed. We propose a probabilistic model to characterize the dynamics of the output power assuming the power follows the normal distribution with a varying mean and a constant standard deviation. Based on that condition, the mean and the variance for the total wind energy production are derived by incorporating the stochastic wind speed and the power dynamics. Both simulations and numerical examples are provided to verify and illustrate the new model, respectively.
Keywords :
AC generators; uncertain systems; wind turbines; constant standard deviation; cut-in wind speed; dynamic power curves; power dynamics; power uncertainty estimation; probabilistic model; wind energy production uncertainty analysis; wind turbine generators; Gaussian distribution; Power generation; Production; Stochastic processes; Uncertainty; Wind energy; Wind energy generation; Wind farms; Wind speed; Wind turbines; Wind turbine generator; power curve; renewable energy; uncertainty estimation;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 2010 IEEE 11th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Singapore
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-5720-5
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/PMAPS.2010.5528405
Filename :
5528405
Link To Document :
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