A Simulation-based assessment of school closure strategies during an influenza epidemic

For assessment of school closure strategies during an influenza pandemic, we used an agent-based simulation model of influenza pandemic within a structured population of an urban community to compare the effectiveness of school closure strategies with various durations and thresholds. We found that both systemwide and individual school closure strategies could provide an effective way to reduce infection in an epidemic. In most cases, systemwide school closure is more effective than individual school closure, especially when the reproductive rate R₀ of the epidemic is high. Experimenting with the various durations and thresholds, our model shows that when longer durations or lower thresholds are applied, both strategies have more effects on the epidemic. This paper provides an example of how agent-based simulation can be employed in policy evaluation and is promising in emergency management.