DocumentCode :
3266802
Title :
Uncertainty mitigation in long-term energy technology forecasts
Author :
Krómer, István
Author_Institution :
VEIKI Inst. for Electr. Power Res., Budapest, Hungary
fYear :
2010
fDate :
10-11 Sept. 2010
Firstpage :
453
Lastpage :
457
Abstract :
In context with climate change mitigation, there is significant interest in analyzing the potential of new energy technologies, which are likely to achieve most progress in terms of performance improvements and cost reduction. The classic experience/learning curves remain the most popular equation to represent the cost improvements of technologies. However, there exists a number of uncertainties in the use of experience curves to forecast future technological learning and diffusion. This report assess the potential and limitations of experience curves as an analytical tool in energy technology transition analysis. Finally, new planning needs are identified to further elaborate the experience curve approach.
Keywords :
climate mitigation; environmental economics; environmental science computing; learning (artificial intelligence); load forecasting; power engineering computing; technological forecasting; uncertainty handling; climate change mitigation; energy technology transition analysis; experience curve; learning curve; long term energy technology forecast; technological diffusion; uncertainty mitigation; Economics; Electricity; Planning; Production; Uncertainty; Wind turbines;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Intelligent Systems and Informatics (SISY), 2010 8th International Symposium on
Conference_Location :
Subotica
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-7394-6
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/SISY.2010.5647337
Filename :
5647337
Link To Document :
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