A new method for risk analysis of reservoir generation dispatching

Risk analysis of reservoir generation dispatching plays an important role in seeking the best scheduling scheme that gives consideration to both risk and benefit. Traditional risk calculating method can´t meet the needs of medium and long-term electricity generation dispatching very well, so this paper proposed probability optimization method of risk analysis, and constructed a risk evaluation index system of long-term generation scheduling to quantify the risk. Based on the probability optimization method of risk analysis, a random expectation model of generation dispatching risk analysis is established. The case study shows that this model can get the relative maximize benefit of power generation under the condition of taking certain risks and have some theoretical significance and reference value for scheduling program development and decision-making.