Optimizing grid contribution and economic returns from solar generators by managing the output uncertainty risk

Intermittent and uncertain nature of power output from weather-dependent renewable energy sources like solar is a major challenge in integrating them with traditional power grids that mostly consist of reliable power sources. We have created a framework for efficiently managing the weather-related uncertainty risk of solar generators and facilitating their integration into power grids while optimizing the economic return from solar investments. We have: 1) Evaluated various solar radiation models. 2) Selected a set of study locations in the US with good solar resources and well developed electricity markets. 3) Sourced hourly weather forecast data from National Weather Service´s automated feed. 4) Applied transformation on forecast data based on the chosen simplified radiation formula and used optimization techniques to identify uncertainty minimizing site combinations. The results show that our approach can generate a gain of up to 6-10% in output contributed to the grid from solar plants.