Estimation of the availability of grid-connected electric vehicles by non-homogeneous semi-Markov processes

This paper presents a methodology to estimate the grid-availability of electric vehicles. This information is needed to make a more accurate prediction of the technical potential of electric vehicles which might be used in future as dispersed energy storages or controllable loads. For this, a simplified stochastic model is built up based on non-homogeneous semi-Markov processes. This model is capable of describing the grid connectivity of electric vehicles during the period of a day. Thereby it is possible to derivate information about the availability of the cars at different times and locations. The fundamentals of the model are given in this paper as well as the basic results. For the proof of validation, a comparison between the results of the model and real data is presented. Eventually, some further application areas of the model are discussed.