Al Qaeda Affiliates Operating in Failed States: The Next Front in the War on Terror

The essay employs a comparative analysis to examine the future of Al Qaeda affiliates operating in Somalia, Yemen and the Maghreb. Among the issues examined are the impact of failed states, tribal structures, criminal enterprise, and counter terrorism policies on affilate armed and financial capability. The paper argues that Al Qaeda affiliates are confined to the periphery of collapsed and weak states and thier future regeneration may be contingent on on the emergence of power vacuums caused by regime overthrow. Despite such opportunities, Al Qaeda affiliates are likely to fail because of the effect of internal factionalism, the de-legitimating effect of their criminal activities and the impact of domestic and international counter terror policies.