DocumentCode :
3305210
Title :
Annual energy demand estimation of Iran industrial sector by Fuzzy regression and ARIMA
Author :
Mehr, M.N. ; Samavati, Faramarz F. ; Jeihoonian, M.
Author_Institution :
South Tehran Branch, Coll. of Ind. Eng., Islamic Azad Univ., Tehran, Iran
Volume :
1
fYear :
2011
fDate :
26-28 July 2011
Firstpage :
593
Lastpage :
597
Abstract :
This research presents a fuzzy regression model to efficiently estimate long term energy consumption in industry sector of Iran from 1982 to 2006. Four independent variables such as energy price, energy intensity, gross domestic production, and employment are introduced as model inputs. The presented model better estimates energy consumption than the conventional technique, auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), based on the preprocessed provided data in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). In addition, the applicability and efficiency of the provided Fuzzy regression model is tested through analysis of variance (ANOVA) and proved its remarkable performance.
Keywords :
autoregressive moving average processes; demand forecasting; energy consumption; fuzzy set theory; regression analysis; ANOVA; ARIMA model; Iran industrial sector; analysis of variance; annual energy demand estimation; autoregressive integrated moving average model; energy intensity; energy price; fuzzy regression model; gross domestic production; long term energy consumption estimation; mean absolute percentage error; root mean square error; Computational modeling; Data models; Energy consumption; Estimation; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Predictive models; ANOVA; ARIMA; Energy demand; Fuzzy regression; Long term energy consumption;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery (FSKD), 2011 Eighth International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Shanghai
Print_ISBN :
978-1-61284-180-9
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/FSKD.2011.6019565
Filename :
6019565
Link To Document :
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