A tool-target based approach for simulating a terrorist attack

Probabilistic risk assessment provides a practical approach for assessing the security capabilities of systems. Terrorism risk assessment requires estimation of the probabilities and consequences of hypothetical attacks against a target. In order to address the interdependencies between the different elements present in the target environment we propose to develop a computer-based model. The model can provide relatively realistic determination of the risk of potential terrorist attacks modelled as dynamically changing scenarios. The novelty is that it allows existing and hypothetical security systems to be integrated easily, thus permitting the overall increase or decrease in risk brought about by each system to be calculated. It provides users with a rapid method for determining the implications of a faulty security system, or the introduction of new technologies. Furthermore it allows terrorist attack scripts to be simulated automatically whilst considering the interplay between the different variables that would affect the outcome of the interactions between the real-world systems. It will integrate movement pattern studies and occupancy behaviour providing information surrounding individuals present within the building such that comprehensive risk mitigation can be undertaken.