A New Methodology of Analytical Formula Deduction and Sensitivity Analysis of EENS in Bulk Power System Reliability Assessment

As an energy index in bulk power system reliability assessment, EENS (expected energy not supplied) is of great significance to reliability and economic analysis, optimal reliability, power system planning, and so on. In this paper, a new analytical way to calculate EENS is proposed. The analytical formula of EENS with respect to component reliability parameters, such as component availability and unavailability, component failure and repair rate, component capacity is proposed. Using the analytical formula, we can easily calculate the system EENS other than reevaluate all the system states when component reliability parameters change, thus much fewer calculation is consumed. Based on the analytical formula, sensitivity indices of EENS with respect to component parameters are derived. The sensitivity indices can help us to identify the system "bottlenecks" effectively and provide essential information for power system planning and operation. The method proposed in this paper enriches the theory of bulk power system reliability assessment as well as provides an advanced technique for promoting its engineering application. The application in the RBTS proves the practicality, validity and effectiveness of the theory and method proposed in this paper