Evidential reasoning in foreign exchange rates forecasting

This paper presents a novel approach to foreign exchange rates forecasting based on the accumulation of and reasoning with supporting and refuting evidence which is brought to bear upon a set of hypotheses about exchange rates movements. The mathematical basis of this approach is provided by the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. This paper describes the basics of Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and how the problem domain of foreign exchange forecasting can be mapped into the framework of the theory. It presents an application of the theory to foreign exchange forecasting and the forecasting system architecture. A summary and discussion of the approach is provided