Modeling and predicting output power losses of solar arrays in a particle filtering framework

Solar arrays are the main source of energy to on-orbit satellite. Their output power determines the use value in a great extent. Therefore, it is of great important reference value in the areas of satellite design and on-orbit satellite control to study the attenuation model of output power, to dynamically update the model based on the real-time data of output power, and to forecast the output power. This paper summarizes the influencing factors of attenuation about solar arrays output power, elaborates on the factors´ trend with time and their effect on output power, and further describes the empirical model about output power varying with time. Next, it puts forward an algorithm of particle filter dynamic prediction based on the empirical model and historical data. By using the algorithm, model parameter updating and output power real-time prediction can be carried out. Finally, using six years data of solar arrays´ voltage and current from a synchronous satellite in orbit, the validity of empirical model about solar arrays output power varying with time was verified based on curve fitting. Besides, the reliability and accuracy of the dynamic prediction method based on particle filter in model parameters updating and output power real-time prediction were also proved out.