Title :
Monthly rainfall forecasting model with hidden periodicities
Author :
Chunhua Shi ; Huimin Wang ; Fancheng Yin
Author_Institution :
State Key Lab. of Hydrol.-Water Resources & Hydraulic Eng., Hohai Univ., Nanjing, China
Abstract :
This paper models the monthly rainfall series by SARIMA and spectrum methods. The hidden periodicities of unspecified frequency are resolved by periodogram, Fisher´s test and Kolmogorov-Simirnov test. Then the presence of a non-sinusoidal periodic component with specified integer-value period is confirmed. For comparison, SARIMA models are also established for prediction.
Keywords :
geophysics computing; rain; weather forecasting; Fisher´s test; Kolmogorov-Simirnov test; SARIMA; hidden periodicities; integer-value period; monthly rainfall forecasting model; monthly rainfall series; nonsinusoidal periodic component; periodogram; spectrum method; Cascading style sheets; Maximum likelihood estimation; Noise; Predictive models; Robustness; TV; Spectrum; fisher´s test; hidden periodicities; kolmogorov-Simirnov test; periodogram;
Conference_Titel :
Strategic Technology (IFOST), 2011 6th International Forum on
Conference_Location :
Harbin, Heilongjiang
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4577-0398-0
DOI :
10.1109/IFOST.2011.6021244
