Adapted reliability prediction by integrating mechanical load impacts

A high and constant machine reliability in combination with low life cycle cost is the key challenge for today´s production. Equipping highly integrated production facilities with robust components and monitoring functions combined with the applicable technical services contributes significantly to guaranteeing machine reliability. In this context, binding reliability predictions are demanded within the scope of reliability-based warranty contracts, life cycle cost-driven bids or service contracts. This article presents an approach which aims at analyzing and predicting the reliability of machines and their components depending on load that is applied. This research focuses on fatigue failures, caused in components under the influence of fluctuating loads. However, the main methodology can be applied with some modifications to other failure modes as well. By integrating suitable methods and information from different sources, this approach helps to achieve a more accurate reliability analysis and prediction when very little field data is available. This reduces the manufacturer´s risks arising from the aforementioned contracts. Additionally, the operators of production facilities gain a greater level of certainty in production planning, in the scheduling of preventive maintenance activities and in planning the provision and storage of necessary spare parts.