A Parametric Reliability Prediction Tool for space applications

This paper demonstrates several analytical techniques used to predict units (from a group) that are more likely to fail in operation. The paper specifically examines the least reliable units used by a number of US space programs. In this paper, the methodology used to develop the Parametric Reliability Prediction Tool (PRPT) is presented. The parameter used is the failure rate/MTBF for the unit. The application of the tool to the DMSP X program has been presented as well. The PRPT will support ¿preventative¿ failure analysis by identifying items that could lead to failures and their probability of occurrence. PRPT will also capture lessons learned to mitigate failure reoccurrence. PRPT will facilitate design reliability trade studies. The PRPT will be expanded to include a process for prediction of early failure modes and mean life time of new products, based on comparisons and similarity derived from the analysis. PRPT provides a disciplined and adequate technique to obtain a more accurate reliability prediction for space systems and subsystems possibly up to line replaceable unit level. Utilizing PRPT in the concept, design and development phases will be an opportunity to improve reliability predictions for space vehicles.