A new trip distribution model based on potential theory

Trip Distribution Forecast is a very important step of “Four-Step Model” in transportation planning, but also the most complex step. Firstly, this paper presented a new trip distribution prediction model based on potential theory in physics, and gave the calibration method of model parameters. The model not only considered the trip attraction, trip generation and trip impedance of different traffic zones, but also took the planning year´s number of trip attractions in the generated zone and attracted zone into account, so Potential Model improved the trip distribution forecasting models; Secondly, this paper made a binary linear regression analysis by using the statistical software SPSS9.0 to calculate and verify the validity of the model by an example; Finally, compared to other trip distribution estimate models that is commonly used, this paper analyzed the potential model and gave some methods to make it better.