Analysis method of compound uncertainty for water quality risk under cascade development mode

Aimed at the quantitative analysis for the run risk of water quality, an analysis method of grey-stochastic compound uncertainty for water quality risk under cascade development mode was established. Regarding respectively the many uncertainties affected the water quality risk and the compound uncertainty relationship among the various factors as random effect and grey relationship, thus establishing the risk analysis method of water quality based on grey-stochastic compound uncertainty, which derived based on an improved first-order second-moment method for solving method, the risk probability obtained by the grey-stochastic risk evaluation fell in a grey space, which satisfactorily reflected the uncertainty of water quality risk under cascade development mode. Project instance analysis shows that the complex uncertainty analysis method proposed can satisfactorily evaluate the potential risk of the water quality under cascade development mode.