DocumentCode
3357988
Title
Chaos theory in technology forecasting
Author
Wang, Clement ; Liu, Xuanrui ; Xu, Daoling
Author_Institution
Nat. Univ. of Singapore, Singapore
Volume
1
fYear
1999
fDate
1999
Abstract
This paper establishes that there is a strong relationship between chaos theory and technology evolution. The challenge in R&D investment in the long term is particularly acute, since the nonlinear system of technology has changed its qualitative characteristics into new phases. At the same time, what chaos theory reveals, especially bifurcation patterns, is that future performance of a system is often a complex, repetitive pattern rather than a one way process. The general trend of evolution according to bifurcation types can be employed to better understand technological forecasting. The authors also propose a promising mathematical model using a neural network to perform the pattern recognition
Keywords
bifurcation; chaos; investment; technological forecasting; R&D investment; bifurcation patterns; chaos theory; mathematical model; neural network; pattern recognition; technology evolution; technology forecasting; Bifurcation; Chaos; Extrapolation; Mathematical model; Pattern recognition; Predictive models; Profitability; Technological innovation; Technology forecasting; Technology management;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Management of Engineering and Technology, 1999. Technology and Innovation Management. PICMET '99. Portland International Conference on
Conference_Location
Portland, OR
Print_ISBN
1-890843-02-4
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/PICMET.1999.808181
Filename
808181
Link To Document