• DocumentCode
    3357988
  • Title

    Chaos theory in technology forecasting

  • Author

    Wang, Clement ; Liu, Xuanrui ; Xu, Daoling

  • Author_Institution
    Nat. Univ. of Singapore, Singapore
  • Volume
    1
  • fYear
    1999
  • fDate
    1999
  • Abstract
    This paper establishes that there is a strong relationship between chaos theory and technology evolution. The challenge in R&D investment in the long term is particularly acute, since the nonlinear system of technology has changed its qualitative characteristics into new phases. At the same time, what chaos theory reveals, especially bifurcation patterns, is that future performance of a system is often a complex, repetitive pattern rather than a one way process. The general trend of evolution according to bifurcation types can be employed to better understand technological forecasting. The authors also propose a promising mathematical model using a neural network to perform the pattern recognition
  • Keywords
    bifurcation; chaos; investment; technological forecasting; R&D investment; bifurcation patterns; chaos theory; mathematical model; neural network; pattern recognition; technology evolution; technology forecasting; Bifurcation; Chaos; Extrapolation; Mathematical model; Pattern recognition; Predictive models; Profitability; Technological innovation; Technology forecasting; Technology management;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Management of Engineering and Technology, 1999. Technology and Innovation Management. PICMET '99. Portland International Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    Portland, OR
  • Print_ISBN
    1-890843-02-4
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/PICMET.1999.808181
  • Filename
    808181