The Research of Power System Operation Risk Assessment Modeling Based on Cloud Models

Because there are lots of random and fuzzy uncertainty factors in power system, the certainty model used to be adopted in reliability research were not reasonable. But cloud models theory is a powerful tool to convert numerical quantitative analysis to conceptual qualitative analysis. In this paper on the basis of introduction of cloud models, the parameter and load cloud models in actual operation of power system is proposed and established to solve the uncertainty of the value FOR and the changing of load. And base the model takes the risk assessment by used the RBTS reliability test system and come out the risk indexes represented by cloud model. The result show that system actual operation condition based cloud models suit the Scene actual.