Water supply reliability assessment in the East River basin of south China

The Water Right Analysis Package (WRAP) is applied to the river/reservoir/water use system of the East River basin in south China. With the quasi-historical monthly streamflow series from 1951 to 2000, the water supply reliability of the projected target is assessed under the joint regulation of three large reservoirs. Both long- and short-term simulation are conducted to do the long-term plan and reservoir operations during short drought period. The simulation results have revealed that the general reliability of the system is acceptable, although there is an obvious probability of water shortage induced by inevitable extreme droughts.