Risk-based life cycle cost analysis method for transmission systems

This paper proposes a model for analysis of life cycle cost (LCC) of the transmission systems. First, to build the model of LCC of the transmission systems, the whole LCC process of components is divided into five costs, i.e., initial cost, operating cost, maintenance cost, fault cost and disposal cost. Second, during the calculation of the maintenance cost, the grey system theory is employed to predict the failure rate of components. Third, risk sources are identified and associated risk index is established based on the proposed model. To quantify risks, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method is used to establish the index of the cost of each stage. As a result, some risk management control methods can be proposed according to the established risk index.