Title :
Time series prediction using Lyapunov exponents in embedding phase space
Author :
Zhang, Jun ; Man, K.F.
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electron. Eng., Hong Kong City Univ., Kowloon, Hong Kong
Abstract :
A chaotic time series prediction method is proposed. This method is based on the fundament characteristic of chaotic behaviour of sensitive dependence upon initial conditions (SDUIC) and Lyapunov exponents (LE) is a measure of the SDUIC in chaotic systems. Because LE of chaotic time series data provide a quantitative analysis of system dynamics in different embedding dimension after embedding a chaotic time series in different embedding dimension phase spaces, a multi-dimension chaotic time series prediction using LE is proposed. This is done by first reconstructing a phase space using chaotic time series and then using LE as quantitative parameters to predict unknown phase space points, then transferring the phase space points to the time domain, and we can get the predicted chaotic time series data. We analyse the fundament characteristics of chaotic time series and LE, and deduce the proposed method. A computer simulation is carried out. The results of the simulation show that the proposed method is simple, practical and effective
Keywords :
Lyapunov methods; chaos; phase space methods; prediction theory; signal reconstruction; time series; Lyapunov exponents; chaotic time series; computer simulation; embedding phase space; phase space point; phase space reconstruction; quantitative parameter; sensitive dependence upon initial conditions; time series prediction; Chaos; Computer simulation; Data analysis; Delay effects; Orbits; Prediction methods; Proposals; Time series analysis; Uniform resource locators; World Wide Web;
Conference_Titel :
Signal Processing Proceedings, 1998. ICSP '98. 1998 Fourth International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Beijing
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-4325-5
DOI :
10.1109/ICOSP.1998.770189