Evaluating the impact of sensor data uncertainty and maneuver uncertainty in a conflict probe

A conflict probe estimates the future separation with other traffic, both for the current state of ownship and variations to this state, using assumptions on how traffic will maneuver. The separation margin between ownship and traffic used in the separation requirements accounts for (i) sufficient spatial and temporal margin to restore separation in case it is lost and (ii) uncertainty in the current and future position data. Uncertainty in the traffic state data can be attributed to sensor inaccuracies, datalink latency, limitations of the extrapolation models and pilot / automation actions that can not be taken into account in the extrapolation models. The goal of the research described in this paper is to use a priori and on-line sensor performance characteristics and knowledge regarding potential maneuvers of the other traffic to specify conflict probe and conflict resolution system parameters. As part of the approach to achieve this, a sensor simulation tool has been integrated with an experimental and configurable conflict probing implementation. This paper discusses the effects of uncertainty in traffic state data on conflict probing and the corresponding evasive maneuver strategy, based on simulation results for different sensor and probe settings and conflict geometries. Additionally, a demonstrator graphical user interface concept to provide information about the uncertainty and an integrated simulation setup are discussed.