Applying Bayes linear methods to support reliability procurement decisions

Author

Bedford, Tim ; Denning, Richard ; Revie, Matthew ; Walls, Lesley

Author_Institution

Dept. of Manage. Sci., Univ. of Strathclyde, Glasgow

fYear

2008

fDate

28-31 Jan. 2008

Firstpage

341

Lastpage

346

Abstract

With the support of the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence (MOD), the Bayes linear method has been used to support reliability decision making on two ´live´ projects. This paper focuses on one of these projects and shows how the Bayes linear methodology has been used to support decision making. The construction of a Bayes linear model comprises three parts. First, we need to structure the model. Second, we need to populate the model with our decision maker´s beliefs. Finally, we must analyze the model once observed data has become available. This paper will briefly discuss how this has been carried out.

Keywords

Bayes methods; belief networks; decision making; procurement; risk management; Bayes linear methods; probabilistic Bayesian methods; reliability decision making; reliability procurement decisions; Bayesian methods; Decision making; Fitting; Probability distribution; Procurement; Risk management; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty; Vectors; Bayes Linear Methods; Reliability Procurement; Risk Assessment; Sensitivity Analysis;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, 2008. RAMS 2008. Annual

Conference_Location

Las Vegas, NV

ISSN

0149-144X

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-1460-4

Electronic_ISBN

0149-144X

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925819

Filename

4925819