Use of Influence Diagram techniques to understand the influences and assess the environmental impact of ATM

Following the presentation performed last year at the 28^th DASC of the “Performance Framework and Influence model in ATM”, this paper presents in detail the application of this methodology to the Environmental Key Performance Area (KPA). The design of a methodology to build a European-wide (ECAC) picture of the potential environmental benefits across 41 countries, 2000 airports, 16 million flights per year with 180 proposed improvements is a big challenge. The paper describes a part of the work undertaken in Episode 3 (EP3-a €19M project launched by the European Commission Sixth Framework Research Programme) to develop a Performance Framework based on deliverables from the Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) programme´s Definition Phase and associated Influence Models (IM). These were used to express the links between required performance and proposed improvements, including results from validation exercises. The Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe (ACARE) set an objective of a 50% reduction in fuel consumption from 2005 to 2020, as follows: -20 to -25% for the aircraft¹; -15 to -20% for the engine; -10% for Air Traffic Management (ATM). The European Commission´s former Vice-President, Jacques Barrot, confirmed a 10% reduction target on the effect that each flight would have on the environment for the future European ATM system of 2020 and beyond. The different factors that influence fuel efficiency, local and global emissions for 2006, 2013 and 2020 are shown here. Also included are initial results obtained from European airspace fast-time simulations and expert judgments. The graphical representation using the Influence Diagram is a very powerful technique to represent complex systems. It was used successfully for developing the performance model and provides a first tangible attempt at creating and maintaining a link between proposed improvements and performance targets supported by validation d- - ata. The objective of the performance studies was not a performance assessment of the SESAR concept, but a demonstration of the proposed approach (framework and initial model-based methodology). An associated set of lessons was learnt from practical EP3 experience during the studies. Continued performance assessment will be done within the SESAR Joint Undertaking (SJU) programme. The Environmental and Fuel Efficiency assessments showed positive trends in performance, though the ability of the Operational Improvements (OIs) to achieve the performance targets was not demonstrated.