Title :
Using a semi-guided Monte Carlo method for faster simulation of forced outages of generating units
Author :
Scully, A. ; Harpur, A. ; Le, K.D. ; Day, J.T. ; Malone, M.J. ; Mousseau, T.E.
Author_Institution :
Electr. Supply Board, Dublin, Ireland
Abstract :
A semiguided Monte Carlo technique to schedule forced outage periods of generating units is described. The key advantage of this method lies in its ability to create forced-outage schedules that are statistically balanced. When tested against the pure Monte Carlo method, the semiguided Monte Carlo technique provided much faster convergence and greatly reduced the number of Monte Carlo iterations required to produce reliable production cost results. The Electricity Supply Board implemented this technique in its chronological dispatch program. The program can be used for a diverse spectrum of applications, from evaluating different generation expansion plans and estimating fuel requirements to evaluating the cost/benefit of improving various plant parameters, such as forced outage rates
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; convergence of numerical methods; digital simulation; economics; electric generators; iterative methods; power stations; power system analysis computing; power system planning; scheduling; applications; chronological dispatch program; convergence; economics; electric utilities; forced outages; generating units; generation expansion; iterations; power system analysis computing; power system planning; production cost; scheduling; semiguided Monte Carlo technique; Costing; Costs; Fuels; Monte Carlo methods; Petroleum; Power system planning; Power system simulation; Production planning; Strontium; Testing;
Conference_Titel :
Power Industry Computer Application Conference, 1991. Conference Proceedings
Conference_Location :
Baltimore, MD
Print_ISBN :
0-87942-620-9
DOI :
10.1109/PICA.1991.160660