Title :
A fuzzy risk analysis model of regional drought disaster
Author :
Zhu, Huiyun ; Chen, Senfa ; Zhang, Lijie
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Econ. & Manage., Southeast Univ., Nanjing, China
Abstract :
Because of the uncertainty of drought disaster events, it is often difficult to obtain accurate information of their probability. In this paper, we use information distribution and interior-outer-set model to tackle this challenging problem by obtaining the possibility - probability distribution of drought disaster events, which can express the fuzziness of probability of drought disaster events. We take a sample data set of the precipitation of Nanjing and Xuzhou, and calculate the possibility - probability distribution. The results demonstrate the feasibilities and effectiveness of the proposed method.
Keywords :
agriculture; disasters; statistical distributions; drought disaster; fuzzy risk analysis; information distribution; interior-outer-set model; probability distribution; Crisis management; Crops; Decision making; Disaster management; Electrical capacitance tomography; Meteorology; Probability distribution; Risk analysis; Risk management; Systems engineering and theory;
Conference_Titel :
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2009. GSIS 2009. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Nanjing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4914-9
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4916-3
DOI :
10.1109/GSIS.2009.5408196
