Title :
Prediction of international crude oil futures price based on GM(1,1)
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Manage., China Univ. of Min. & Technol., Xuzhou, China
Abstract :
Grey prediction method is characterized by small amount data, simple calculation and accurate prediction. On the basis of WTI crude oil futures monthly price of New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) from June 2008 to Feb 2009, this paper gives a grey prediction model of intentional crude oil prices. The results show that the model of GM (1,1) is suitable for crude oil prices forecast. It predicts that the crude oil price on Feb 2009 is $37.55 per barrel. In contrast with the actual market price, the prediction accuracy is as high as 95.62%.
Keywords :
crude oil; forecasting theory; international trade; pricing; New York Mercantile Exchange; crude oil price forecast; grey prediction model; international crude oil futures price; market price; prediction accuracy; Demand forecasting; Econometrics; Economic forecasting; Electrochemical machining; Error correction; Fuel economy; Petroleum; Power generation economics; Predictive models; Reactive power;
Conference_Titel :
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2009. GSIS 2009. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Nanjing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4914-9
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4916-3
DOI :
10.1109/GSIS.2009.5408222
