Grey model of county-level fiscal income & expenditure and application

Other than directly investigate the relationships among factors in a complex system or a large amount of samples, grey model is more suitable to forecast county-level fiscal income & expenditure with fewer samples and time series data for it can seek the transformation pattern by coordinating originality data. The paper studies the county- level fiscal income and expenditure forecasting based on grey model in both model and indicator terms. On the basis of predicting fiscal income and expenditure of Guangfeng county from 2001 to 2006, the result indicate that gray model is feasible for predicting county-level fiscal income & expenditure and it produces an obvious fitting effect on two selected emulational subjects. Therefore, gray model is of great significance to predict district fiscal income & expenditure, evaluate fiscal risks, assist administrator with fiscal decision making according to the evaluation result and guard against as well as defuse district fiscal risks.