Title :
Application of the residual GM(1,1) calamities model to aridity forecast in Sichuan
Author :
Jiang, Xiangcheng ; Chen, Senfa
Author_Institution :
Inst. of Syst. Eng., Southeast Univ., Nanjing, China
Abstract :
Based on the data of crop aridity area in Sichuan since 1949, we propose a hybrid method of the grey system theory and modeling grey calamities residual GM(1,1) model to process the year series of various threshold of drought acreage. Combining inclusion relation of drought predication years sets, we make improvement on forecast reliability of residual GM(1,1) calamities model in Sichuan aridity.
Keywords :
crops; disasters; forecasting theory; grey systems; aridity forecast; crop aridity area; drought acreage; drought predication years sets; forecast reliability; grey system theory; residual GM(1,1) calamities model; Crops; Economic forecasting; Environmental economics; Hydrology; Loss measurement; Meteorology; Predictive models; Production; Water conservation; Weather forecasting;
Conference_Titel :
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2009. GSIS 2009. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Nanjing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4914-9
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4916-3
DOI :
10.1109/GSIS.2009.5408256
