DocumentCode
3409803
Title
Application of the residual GM(1,1) calamities model to aridity forecast in Sichuan
Author
Jiang, Xiangcheng ; Chen, Senfa
Author_Institution
Inst. of Syst. Eng., Southeast Univ., Nanjing, China
fYear
2009
fDate
10-12 Nov. 2009
Firstpage
525
Lastpage
528
Abstract
Based on the data of crop aridity area in Sichuan since 1949, we propose a hybrid method of the grey system theory and modeling grey calamities residual GM(1,1) model to process the year series of various threshold of drought acreage. Combining inclusion relation of drought predication years sets, we make improvement on forecast reliability of residual GM(1,1) calamities model in Sichuan aridity.
Keywords
crops; disasters; forecasting theory; grey systems; aridity forecast; crop aridity area; drought acreage; drought predication years sets; forecast reliability; grey system theory; residual GM(1,1) calamities model; Crops; Economic forecasting; Environmental economics; Hydrology; Loss measurement; Meteorology; Predictive models; Production; Water conservation; Weather forecasting;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2009. GSIS 2009. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location
Nanjing
Print_ISBN
978-1-4244-4914-9
Electronic_ISBN
978-1-4244-4916-3
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/GSIS.2009.5408256
Filename
5408256
Link To Document