Demand forecast of FTTX: An application of grey theory in Taiwanese market

This study analyzes the application of grey prediction theory to forecast the demand of FTTX in Taiwan and the future development of FTTX in comparison to the traditional regression model. FTTB is the most commonly used network application model taken by most of the carriers in the world. It is important to be aware of the development of FTTX and to set up marketing strategies because the FTTX market is still in the developing stage in Taiwan. This study employed the sales data from first to fourth quarters of 2008 to undergo grey prediction theory. With grey prediction theory, uncertain information can be used to carry out rational analysis and model construction. The results indicated that under the condition of limited information, the accuracy in predicting market demand using GM (1, 1) is far superior to the traditional regression model. Based on GM (1, 1) model, the number of customers of Chunghwa Telecom is 1,060,000 from Jan. 2006 to March 2009 and will expand to 2,560,000 in 2010. It is suggested that the telecommunication and cable.