DocumentCode
3410161
Title
An optimization method of estimating parameters in GM (1, 1) model
Author
Xue-mei, Li ; Yao-guo, Dang ; Jie-jue, Zhao
Author_Institution
Coll. of Econ. & Manage., Nanjing Univ. of Aeronaut. & Astronaut., Nanjing, China
fYear
2009
fDate
10-12 Nov. 2009
Firstpage
448
Lastpage
451
Abstract
According to Principle of New Information Priority in grey theory, giving the new information larger weight in modeling can improve the effectiveness of gray model. For the GM (1, 1)model has very small samples, and the high overall simulation accuracy does not necessarily guarantee high prediction accuracy, we put forward weighted least square method to estimate parameters in GM (1, 1) model. Focusing on improving the simulation accuracy of new information, focusing on grasping the latest development´ law of things, and aiming at improving the prediction accuracy by giving residual sum of squares of new information larger weight. Finally, we use an example to verify the practicality and reliability of the model.
Keywords
forecasting theory; grey systems; least squares approximations; optimisation; parameter estimation; GM model; grey theory; new information priority; optimization method; overall simulation accuracy; parameter estimation; prediction accuracy; weighted least square method; AC generators; Accuracy; Economic forecasting; Electronic mail; Industrial economics; Intelligent systems; Least squares methods; Optimization methods; Parameter estimation; Predictive models;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2009. GSIS 2009. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location
Nanjing
Print_ISBN
978-1-4244-4914-9
Electronic_ISBN
978-1-4244-4916-3
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/GSIS.2009.5408272
Filename
5408272
Link To Document