Title :
An optimization method of estimating parameters in GM (1, 1) model
Author :
Xue-mei, Li ; Yao-guo, Dang ; Jie-jue, Zhao
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Econ. & Manage., Nanjing Univ. of Aeronaut. & Astronaut., Nanjing, China
Abstract :
According to Principle of New Information Priority in grey theory, giving the new information larger weight in modeling can improve the effectiveness of gray model. For the GM (1, 1)model has very small samples, and the high overall simulation accuracy does not necessarily guarantee high prediction accuracy, we put forward weighted least square method to estimate parameters in GM (1, 1) model. Focusing on improving the simulation accuracy of new information, focusing on grasping the latest development´ law of things, and aiming at improving the prediction accuracy by giving residual sum of squares of new information larger weight. Finally, we use an example to verify the practicality and reliability of the model.
Keywords :
forecasting theory; grey systems; least squares approximations; optimisation; parameter estimation; GM model; grey theory; new information priority; optimization method; overall simulation accuracy; parameter estimation; prediction accuracy; weighted least square method; AC generators; Accuracy; Economic forecasting; Electronic mail; Industrial economics; Intelligent systems; Least squares methods; Optimization methods; Parameter estimation; Predictive models;
Conference_Titel :
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2009. GSIS 2009. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Nanjing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4914-9
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4916-3
DOI :
10.1109/GSIS.2009.5408272