Analyze on response of runoff to climate change based on the modified GM(1,2) model

A modified GM (1,2) model is proposed to simulate the runoff. Zhoukou and Tanghe station was taken as an example. The results show that the modified model was a means to better understand the significance of runoff variability upon climate change. The influence of the future climate change on hydrological processes was discussed. The runoff in this valley is projected on this basis according to the precipitation information provided from the IPCC. The results show that the tendency of runoff is increasing in next 100 years and the growth rate of runoff is differentiation in different scenario.