A novel improved GM(1,1) model and its applictions

The forecast of the demand for the highway transportation is extremely important theoretically and practically since the road is the national infrastructure. The original GM(1,1) models have been analyzed, and their shortcomings in the road forecast have been pointed out. Because sometimes the precision of grey model cannot meet the requirement of actual forecasting, a novel improved GM(1,1) model is given in this paper. Moreover, the novel model has been used to forecast result of the road transportation demand from 2005 to 2010. Finally, this model has been implemented and tested on a real datasets. The performance of this model is compared with the original method. Our computation simulations reveal very encouraging results in terms of error and the method is an efficient and effective approach.