Grey analysis of corrosion on the overhead condensing system

Corrosion is a serious problem in atmospheric distillation unit when the plant refines high-acid crude oil from Shengli Oil Field. How to measure and predict the corrosion and related factors is a significant task in refinery. The GM (1, 1) model can only predict the sequence of exponential law, scribe the monotonic change event. We take acid values as a sample, use the data from the first to 6th month, and establish GM (2, 1) model and Verhulst model to predict the data from 7th to 9^th month. For the GM (2, 1) model, the maximum relative error is 11.8%, the mean relative error is 7.2%, and the mean relative error of prediction data is 13.2%. For the Verhulst model, the maximum relative error is 7.0%, the mean relative error is 3.1%, and the mean relative error of prediction data is 10.6%. The conclusion is that the Verhulst model is better than DGM model and the Verhulst model can be used for corrosion pate prediction.