Title :
A literature review with statistical analysis of electricity price forecasting methods
Author :
Cerjan, Marin ; Krzelj, Ivana ; Vidak, Marko ; Delimar, Marko
Author_Institution :
HEP Trade Ltd., Zagreb, Croatia
Abstract :
In today´s liberalized and competitive power market, electric utilities, power producers and traders are exposed to increasing price risks and volatility. The growing reliance on renewable sources and their dependence on weather, nuclear uncertainty, market coupling and global financial instability are contributing to importance of accurate price forecast. Considering the fact that power markets are not equally developed, different price forecasting methods have arose. This paper provides an overview of notable price forecasting methods that have been published in research papers. The paper also includes statistical review of applied methods embracing timeframe, geographical background, statistical errors and other specific data. Finally, results are discussed with respect to qualitative and quantitative statistical analysis, with emphasis on the price forecasting accuracy.
Keywords :
power markets; pricing; statistical analysis; electricity price forecasting methods; geographical background; power market; statistical analysis; statistical errors; Artificial neural networks; Autoregressive processes; Electricity; Forecasting; Input variables; Predictive models; Production; electricity price; forecasting techniques; market models; price forecasting; spot market;
Conference_Titel :
EUROCON, 2013 IEEE
Conference_Location :
Zagreb
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-2230-0
DOI :
10.1109/EUROCON.2013.6625068