Title :
Fuzzy risk and calculation
Author :
Chongfu, Huang ; Peijun, Shi
Author_Institution :
Inst. of Resource Sci., Beijing Normal Univ., China
Abstract :
Reviewing some concepts of fuzzy risk, we give a new definition of fuzzy risk. To improve probability-risk analysis, we propose the concept of possibility-probability distribution. Fuzzy sets are employed to show the imprecision of probability estimation. We use the information distribution method to calculate a possibility-probability distribution instead of expert experience. With a flood example, we show how to calculate a fuzzy risk, where the probability of exceeding losses is not one value but a fuzzy number. The benefit of this result is that one can easily understand the imprecision of risk assessment of natural disasters when data is lacking
Keywords :
disasters; fuzzy set theory; possibility theory; probability; risk management; flood; fuzzy number; fuzzy risk; fuzzy set theory; information distribution method; natural disasters; possibility-probability distribution; probability-risk analysis; risk assessment; Earthquakes; Floods; Fuels; Fuzzy sets; Pollution measurement; Probability distribution; Risk analysis; Risk management;
Conference_Titel :
Fuzzy Information Processing Society, 1999. NAFIPS. 18th International Conference of the North American
Conference_Location :
New York, NY
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-5211-4
DOI :
10.1109/NAFIPS.1999.781660
