A lifetime prognostics method for aviation generator based on grey theory

For the problem that aviation generator lifetime prognostics is difficult, this paper proposes a prognostics method for aviation generator lifetime based on grey theory. A real military aviation generator is tested to obtain a large number of lifetime data. After the analysis about the military aviation generator lifetime data, the paper uses grey theory to design two models of aviation generator lifetime prognostics, which are GM (1, 1) and MGM (1, n). The single and more parameters are respectively used to set grey models to prognosticate the aviation generator lifetime. Experiments show that the MGM (1, 3) established by speed, load and oil-filled pressure can prognosticate the aviation generator lifetime more accurately than the GM (1, 1). The prognostics average relative error of MGM (1, 3) is only 2.21%. It presents a new method to solve the problem of aviation generator lifetime prognostics. And this method has a good use foreground to prognosticate other key products lifetime in aerospace and other field.