Risk analysis of system security based on evidence theory

Risk evaluation is very important to the design and improvement of physical protection systems. In this paper, an evaluation method of multi-source information fusion is proposed based on the D-S evidence theory. In the proposed method, each individual component of the protection system in the simulated plane is modeled. Then, the threat report of each component according to the specific tactics is determined based on its real environment. Finally, the comprehensive threat distribution is obtained based on through the D-S evidence theory to combine multi-sources information. The proposed method can easily applied to the evaluation of the effectiveness of the protection system. We make the total threat of the protection system lowest through changes of the protection resources allocation. A numerical example is used to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.