An empirical study on paying rate of basic pension insurance based on probabilistic voting model

This thesis employs two OLG Models to analyze the partially funded pension system in China, and proves that the reduction of the population growth rate will lead to the increase of the payment rate. And intergenerational transfer rate between two generations will improve. The ascending of the enterprise payment rate during political-economy equilibrium is determined by the decline of capital output elasticity coefficient and retirement coefficient and the ascending of the political weight of the retirees. Then the thesis concludes that the increase of the social payment rate will diminish the working consumption of labors and improving the retiree consumption. The increase of the social total deposit will reduce the labor´s consumption at the moment. The adding of the proportion in GDP of the total sum of payment is decided by increase of the payment rate of enterprise and the decline of population growth rate.