Mining Causal Association Rules

Discovering causal relationships is the ultimate goal of many scientific explorations. Causal relationships can be identified with controlled experiments, but such experiments are often very expensive and sometimes impossible to conduct. On the other hand, the collection of observational data has increased dramatically in recent decades. Therefore it is desirable to find causal relationships from the data directly. Significant progress has been made in the field of discovering causal relationships using the Causal Bayesian Network (CBN) theory. The applications of CBNs, however, are greatly limited due to the high computational complexity. In another direction, association rule mining has been shown to be an efficient data mining means for relationship discovery. However, although causal relationships imply associations, the reverse does not always hold. In this paper we study how to use an efficient association mining approach to discover potential causal rules in observational data. We make use of the idea of retrospective cohort studies, a widely used approach in medical and social research, to detect causal association rules. In comparison with the constraint-based methods within the CBN paradigm, the proposed approach is faster and is capable of finding a cause consisting of combined variables.