On the Sensitivity Analysis of Electricity Price

Sensitivity analysis is an effective tool to mine the dynamic characteristics of the explanatory variables on the result variable. But due to the complexity of the influence factors, the sensitivity analysis on electricity price is along one of focused and unsolved problems in the researches of electricity market. To solve this problem, a novel model is proposed to analyze the sensitivity of electricity price. The basic and first work here is to mine the quantity explanatory equation of electricity price, which is built based on hybrid algorithm that integrates support vector machine (SVM) with regression. To enhance the accuracy and adaptibility of price model, SVM is applied for price pattern identification. And different regression models are built in terms of their corresponding patterns. After that, the derivatives of all explanatory variables in the equation are computed. Then the sensitivity coefficients of price are obtained. Finally case studies are used to testify the validity of the proposed model.