Scenario planning, the interpretation of uncertainty and value-focused decision making: a case study of a radioactive waste site remediation

The interpretation of uncertainty is frequently a source of conflict in deciding on an appropriate course of action regarding the remediation of radioactive waste sites. Experts and laypeople may disagree on the uncertainty involving critical driving factors-political, economic, social, and technical (PEST)-of a proposed remediation. Questions such as, what constitutes a reasonable risk and what is a burden to the community are common. More importantly, experts and laypeople may have different worldviews or “mental models” of how PEST factors interact to create the future. Scenario planning creates internally consistent, plausible stories of the future based upon different interpretations of the uncertainty of critical driving factors. In a case study of a radioactive waste site remediation, it is proposed that scenario planning be used to create a shared language among stakeholders to provide a means for overcoming public suspicions of experts while bringing experts to a greater appreciation of public concerns. The goal is a clearer articulation of the values that inform decision making