Adaptive Regulation Ant Colony System Algorithm - Radial Basis Function Neural Network Model and Its Application

To improve the reservoir long-term runoff forecasting accuracy. Adaptive regulation ant colony system algorithm (ARACS) is proposed. The forecast model is set up by using an adaptive regulation ant colony system algorithm and the radial basis function (RBF) neural network combined to form ARACS-RBF hybrid algorithm. Form the reservoir long-term runoff forecast model based on the hybrid algorithm. Then carry out the reservoir long-term runoff forecast by using the method and history runoff data. The result shows the convergence of method is faster and forecast accuracy is more accurate than that of the traditional ant colony system algorithm-RBF neural network and RBF neural network. The method improves forecast accuracy and improves the RBF neural network generalization capacity; it has a high computational precision, and in 98% of confidence level the average percentage error is not more than 6%. The hybrid algorithm can be used efficaciously in long-term runoff forecasting of the reservoir and river.