Forecast of Oil Production in Daqing Oilfield Based on System Dynamics

Through a thorough collation and analysis of the historical data about exploration and development of Daqing oilfield, a system dynamics model of oil production in the field is established in this paper. Parameters in the model are analyzed and determined, and simulations are made to forecast the oil production, degree of reserve recovery, remaining recoverable reserves, the direct exploration investment for new recoverable reserves per 10000 tons and the reserve/production ratio of Daqing oilfield before 2060 with Vensim software.The forecast results show that the objective of establishing a centurial oilfield for Daqing can be realized, but the sustainable development of the field will face many challenges such as the continuous decline in oil production before 2030 and the decrease of economic benefit probably arising after 2030. It is worth paying more attention to the challenges for decision-makers.