Title :
Using Online WOM to Forecast Box Office for Movies Coming Soon
Author :
Huang, Minxue ; Wang, Feng
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Econ. & Manage., Wuhan Univ., Wuhan
Abstract :
WOM is a significant explanatory variable and predictor of box office across a movie´s entire run. Based on online WOM and Bass Model, we construct a forecasting model calibrated by curve fitting on box office for movies coming soon. The finally results indicate that once producers know the external parameter and four statistics for online WOM of a movie other than the ones characterized by low buzz management, they can accurately forecast that movie´s opening week and aggregate box office.
Keywords :
curve fitting; entertainment; mobile computing; box office forecasting model; coming soon movies; curve fitting; low buzz management; Advertising; Aggregates; Curve fitting; Econometrics; Economic forecasting; Environmental economics; Internet; Motion pictures; Predictive models; Statistics;
Conference_Titel :
Wireless Communications, Networking and Mobile Computing, 2008. WiCOM '08. 4th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Dalian
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2107-7
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2108-4
DOI :
10.1109/WiCom.2008.2169
