Transfer capability uncertainty computation

To reduce the uncertainty effects in the computation of transfer capability, transmission reliability margin (TRM) is proposed as a security margin of system to account for the uncertainties involved in estimating the true available transfer capability (ATC). Maintaining system reliability requires a statistical forecast for the expected value of TRM. To quantifying the power transfer capability uncertainty and determine an adequate TRM, a point estimate method is proposed in this paper. The proposed method calculates the statistical moments of the transfer capability variation with respect to the uncertainty in the system parameters. The proposed method can be used directly with a deterministic computer program and it does not require derivatives of the transfer capability. Performance of the proposed method is compared with those of Monte Carlo simulation and first-order second-moment (FOSM) method using IEEE 24 bus reliability test system.